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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."